The Beginnings of the Thesis

Malcolm Gladwell wrote a great article for The New Yorker on neural networks and predicting box office returns. Let's take this as the starting point for a Master's thesis.

I guess you could say that, per the article's descriptions, I'm a Kamesian. I like to think we could find a formula that could predict a film's profitability within an acceptable margin of error. Sure, it would be off occasionally, sometimes way off, but those discrepencies can only make the formula more accurate over time.

In terms of a thesis, though, I'm not sure it's enough to just study the idea of a formula to predict film profitability. The next step could be to actually develop my own formula to accurately predict a film's profitability.

A third option would be to consider other options for such a formula. What other applications are there for the entertainment industry for these formulas? Or, from another angle, what results will such information have on the film business? Could such formulas result in better films or a decrease in film variety?

In a larger sense, the thesis could be more about the coming changes that digital technology will bring in general. What will be the result of our access to more and more data and our ability to process this data in more powerful ways? What changes will occur and how will filmmakers and film distributors be affected by these changes? What opportunities will be created by these changes and what jobs will be eliminated?

The next few weeks will be spent refining the problem to be addressed by my thesis.